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Audit-Ready Patent Valuation: Evidence-Grounded Estimates with Calibrated Uncertainty and Abstention

Research Paper

PRPS-2026-04

Amrutha Moorthy

Overview

Patent valuations used in licensing, litigation, portfolio transactions and investment decisions are often presented as numerical outputs even though the assumptions feeding those models can vary substantially in evidentiary strength. This paper develops the concept of audit-ready patent valuation: a valuation workflow in which material inputs can be traced to verifiable technical, product and market evidence, uncertainty remains visible, and weak evidence can constrain or prevent numerical output. The framework is organised around three conditions. Traceability requires each material input to be linked to its supporting evidence. Calibrated uncertainty requires the strength and completeness of that evidence to be reflected in how confidently the output is interpreted. Abstention capability allows the process to withhold a valuation where the evidentiary record does not support a defensible estimate. Technical evidence can include claim-level correspondence to concrete features or standards clauses; product and market layers add deployment and economic context with identifiable provenance. The paper therefore focuses on the governance of valuation inputs and outputs rather than proposing another standalone economic valuation method.

Citation

Moorthy, A. (2026). Audit-Ready Patent Valuation: Evidence-Grounded Estimates with Calibrated Uncertainty and Abstention. Patenti Research Paper Series, PRPS-2026-04. Patenti Technology Solutions.

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